Google is in the process of slowly rolling out Google+, its own social networking platform. The question on the mind of many is whether or not Google+ has the potential to dethrone Facebook as the social networking site of choice. I think it is too early to definitively say, but I’ll play along and throw out my view based on the information I have now. Despite the fact that I think Google+ is better designed and that Google has proven consistently that they can create quality software products, I do not believe Google+ can dethrone Facebook. I’ll go so far as to say that I do not think that Google+ can even be a legitimate competitor unless it adapts to fit into a different niche.
Things Google+ has going for it:
(1) Novelty. Google+ is the new kid on the block and is supported by a powerful player in the market. This is sure to create very rapid growth in the short term.
(2) Widespread acceptance of social networking. Everyone knows what social networking sites do and it is a part of the everyday lives of hundreds of millions of people throughout the developed world. This was a headwind that Facebook weathered that is a tailwind for Google+
(3) Facebook. Call it irony, but I think a large portion of current Google+ users heard about it from Facebook and even got an invite to Google+ via Facebook. There are plenty of mediums for Google+ to spread and Facebook is the biggest.
(4) Wisdom. Google engineers have had years to analyze Facebook and failed social networking platforms alike to assess what works and what doesn’t. They’re a new player to the game, but they’ve got plenty of information to make use of.
(5) Design. Google is known for its elegant and innovative design principles and Google+ is no exception to this. Google+ is easier to use and is (currently) less of a morass to navigate than Facebook is. Simplicity is power.
(6) Facebook is evil. I don’t actually know whether Facebook is evil or not, but there is perception of evil (Mark Zuckerberg being an easy punching bag doesn’t help.) Perhaps the world is looking for a suitable alternative to Facebook. If that is true, the Google+ is a great answer.
But, in the end I think the challenges Google+ faces are real and probably insurmountable at this point. Google+ Headwinds:
(1) Facebook might just be too big already. Facebook has gotten to the point where there are so many people on it that others are pressured to join, even if they otherwise would not have. Once the novelty factor of Google+ wears off, this will be a real problem. A friend of mine posted on his Google+ a few days ago, “I am tapping my foot, waiting for there to be enough members for this to be fun…” I think he’ll be tapping his foot for a long time and he may never stop.
(2) Cost of change. I truly believe that Google+ is better designed than Facebook. But it is different than Facebook and change is difficult to impress upon the masses.
(3) Differentiation. Twitter, Tumblr, and Facebook are all social networking animals, but each serves a slightly different purpose so they can peacefully co-exist. It seems like Google+ is aiming (or at least currently has) the exact type of aspiration as facebook does (a virtual rolodex used to keep up with friends and what they are sharing.) Unless Google+ differentiates itself and finds a niche, I think it will be difficult for it to live for long.
(4) Privacy concerns. Lets be honest here. Google already knows everything about me via my e-mail, google apps account, my google reader, my search history (yikes), my adsense account, my google docs and everything else. Now, I am giving google more information about who I associate with, what I do at parties, and what things I want to share with my friends. An intelligent Google engineer could create a clone of me and basically have it walk around my life for a few days without anyone realizing. I don’t believe Google is evil. But if it was or turns that way, we’re all in a lot of trouble.
The bottom line is that Google+, I am pulling for you, but I think you’re fighting a battle that you’re not going to win unless you figure out a way to get mass buy-in or adapt your service to fill in a niche to co-exist with Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, and other social networking services.