Ideas

Don’t Outsource Your Thinking

It feels good to be writing in public again.

My time spent in the world of capital allocation, whether in venture or at a hedge fund, taught me that writing is often more about institutional messaging than personal inquiry. The layers of compliance and strategic consideration are necessary, of course, but I found they can temper the spirit of open exploration. The liberty to now write for myself, to simply think in public, is a freedom I’m excited to reclaim.

So, I’m back. And I thought I’d start by sharing a bit about the evolution of my process: how I think, how I write, and how I’m learning to partner with Artificial Intelligence.

Why I Write: The Search for Clarity

Since 2011, I’ve kept a running notebook (physical and digital) that has become a sprawling archive of my brain. It’s filled with notes, reflections, and half-baked essays on everything from statistical models and product strategy to being a better father and husband.

This started as a simple habit, but over time, I’ve found it’s become essential for my own mental well-being. Writing is the most reliable tool I have for untangling complexity. When I’m stuck on a problem, when a decision feels fuzzy, or when I just feel a general sense of unease about something, I write. For me, wrestling with an unformed idea is like navigating a thick fog. There’s a disquieting sense of knowing something is there without being able to see it, and the act of writing is what finally parts the mist, revealing the path ahead. It reveals the flaws in my own logic and the gaps in my thinking. I find that I can’t bluff myself on a blank page.

For years, this practice was mostly private, a tool for my own clarity. Now, I’m trying to add that final step of publishing, and I’m finding it adds a new, welcome layer of rigor to my process.

My New Sparring Partner

My writing workflow has changed a lot in the last few years. While I use AI every day, I’ve found my process looks a bit different from how some people seem to use these tools. For me, asking it to “write a blog post about X” would feel like outsourcing the part of the work I value most.

Instead, I’ve settled into treating it like an endlessly patient and brutally honest sparring partner. It’s become the bridge that helps me get from the initial chaos of an idea to a coherent, pressure-tested structure. My job is still to provide clear, nuanced direction; its job is to organize, challenge, and reflect my thinking back to me at the speed of light.

To share what this looks like in practice, let me walk you through a recent example. Awhile back, I was building the business case for a major investment in a new data analytics platform. My head was a mess of disconnected thoughts: total cost of ownership, complex integration challenges, potential ROI, vendor comparisons, competing stakeholder needs, optimistic vs. realistic implementation timelines, and the significant risks of doing nothing while deeply understanding the firm’s aversion to additional costs..

Step 1: The Brain Dump and Thematic Sort I dumped all of it into a prompt, hundreds of words of pure stream-of-consciousness. My request was simple: “I’m building a business case for a new analytics platform. Here are my raw thoughts. Please organize them into a logical structure for a strategy document.”

Instantly, the AI took my jumbled list and returned a clean structure with five sections: The Problem, The Proposed Solution, Financial Impact (ROI & TCO), Implementation Plan & Risks, and Expected Outcomes. It was a solid, standard starting point that immediately gave a skeleton to my chaotic thoughts.

Step 2: The Adversarial Pressure Test This, for me, is where the process gets really interesting. I then gave the AI (often a different LLM) a new persona: “Now, act as a skeptical CFO who is unconvinced of the ROI and deeply concerned about the budget and headcount required. Rip this business case apart. Tell me where the financial assumptions are weak, where the plan is naive, and what crucial questions I’m failing to answer.”

The response was informative and humbling. It pointed out that my ROI calculations were based on overly optimistic adoption rates and that I hadn’t adequately budgeted for the “hidden costs” of training. It flagged that my timeline didn’t account for likely delays from the engineering team. It was the kind of direct, ego-free feedback that is incredibly difficult to get from a human colleague on a busy afternoon, and it was exactly what I needed to see the weaknesses in my own case. It forced me to confront the base rate of failures, even though my contextual perspective suggested higher probabilities of success. It wasn’t clear who was right, but it sharped my understanding of the considerations.

Step 3: The Iterative Loop I spent the next hour in a back-and-forth dialogue with the model, refining my points while it challenged the revisions. By the end of this process, I didn’t have a finished document, but I had something much more valuable: a robust, coherent, and battle-tested argument that I felt much more confident in. Every once in awhile, if the step-by-step incremental approach isn’t yielding what I want, I’d paste a chunk of the conversation into a fresh chat window, with my feedback on how I want to “holistically re-imagine” the write-up with specific feedback, and I’ll often get a complete re-orientation that’s a marked improvement.

Only then did I open a blank page and begin to write the prose myself, with a lot less help from an LLM.

Protecting the Muscle

This partnership is working for me so far, but I’m still figuring out where to draw the line. For me, relying on AI to do the final writing would feel like taking an escalator instead of the stairs. It’s faster, but I worry that if I did it all the time, the mental muscles I need for the climb would begin to fade.

The act of choosing the right word, structuring a sentence, and weaving a narrative is where I find the deepest thinking about persuasion and effectiveness happens. That work relies on a set of skills I’m trying to cultivate: taste, intuition, and strategic empathy.

More importantly, it forces me to draw on context that AI simply does not have. So much of what informs my perspective comes from the data that isn’t in a dataset like the hesitation in a project lead’s voice, the unspoken dynamic between departments in a strategy meeting, or a pattern of resistance I might recognize from a dozen similar initiatives. I feel my writing needs to be infused with that full, messy, human picture to be valuable.

For me, figuring out what matters and how to say it remains the core work. My working theory is that in a world increasingly saturated with machine-generated content, this human act of judgment will become more important, not less.

What’s Next

Going forward, I’m excited to use this space to explore the questions I’m wrestling with. I’ll be writing about the evolution of data science and product development, the messy reality of decision-making in business, and the economic frameworks I’m using to try to make sense of a rapidly changing world.

This is just the process I’ve landed on for now, and I’m sure it will continue to evolve. I’m genuinely curious to hear how others are navigating this. If you have a workflow of your own, or see things differently, I’d love to hear about it.

Thanks for reading.

Find ways to compound everything you want to grow

Your time gravitates naturally towards what you love to do. If what you love to do intersects with your work, then it is likely that often when you are not working you are doing things that further your excellence at your trade anyway. If these extra hours are the same as the hours you work, every year you do something gives you almost 2 years of experience. And if you work hard to be 30% more efficient, that multiplies the 2x. This consistent advantage compounds over time.

Questioning Fundamental Truths

I have lived a very lucky life so far. I love my family and my friends and they love me (I think.) Things have worked out well for me, but last night things were different. Fundamental truths that I believed, ceased to be. See below for this harrowing tale of shock, anger, and deceit.

At approximately 11:52pm on Saturday September 20th my friend Robert (names have been changed to protect the innocent) placed a Domino’s pizza order online for pickup. At 11:54pm, we were excited to see that our order had entered the “Prep” stage. I had confidence that things were under control, because I was assured that Domino’s employee Miguel was my pizza’s personal caretaker.

At 11:56pm, we saw the pizza enter the bake stage. At this point, Robert, Dan (another protected name), and myself left our home to pick up the pizza at place of incident. We arrived at place of incident at 12:09am, right at the time the pizza was supposed to be coming out of the oven. The quoted bake time was 8-13 minutes.

Robert and I exited Dan’s vehicle (a mint green 1997 Nissan Maxima) and proceeded to the place of incident. At 12:09am, much to our shock, we saw our pizza’s being finished AND PLACED INTO THE OVEN. This was directly contrary to our assurance that the pizza was in the oven at 11:56pm.

After a period of utter disbelief, Robert and I were in frantic search of Miguel, our only hope for an answer. We were informed by employees at the place of incident that there was no one by the name of Miguel employed at the establishment. I lost all ability to speak, or comprehend.

After hearing this story, I implore you all to now ask yourselves, if you cannot trust Domino’s pizza tracker, what can you trust?

I appreciate everybody’s support in this difficult time.

Travel Tip: Wear flip flops

The last few trips I have taken have been made a tad bit more comfortable and pleasant because I wore flip flops.

First, going through security is a breeze since you don’t have to take off and put your shoes back on (I hate doing that.) Most of the time, they just let me walk through security with my flip flops, though in JFK I actually had to take them off, which wasn’t a big deal because of how easy the procedure is with flip flops. Second, when you’re actually on the plane, it is nice to be able to kick off the flip flops and walk around barefoot. Call me a hippy, but I quite enjoy the feeling of carpet on my feet.

I think any flip flops will do, but I am partial to Rainbow and Reef. They mold to your feet over time and are extremely comfortable. I believe Rainbow has a lifetime guarantee on the soles of their sandals. Once they are worn out, they will replace them for FREE — the part that is molded to your feet stay on the sandal. Don’t quote me on that though.

Give it a try.

Poker Players are Unpleasant

I have found that poker players as a generic group are more unpleasant than the population as a whole. Keep in mind that I am making this observation this despite the fact that I grew up in New York and went to school in Baltimore, two of the more unfriendly cities.

I have observed that most (obviously not all) poker players are ruder, grumpier, and more arrogant than the general populace. For example, I have found that people who play poker seem to have a very inflated opinion of their poker playing abilities. How many games/sports do you know of in which absolutely no one is unskilled? How often do you meet someone who plays poker on even a sporadic basis that says they aren’t good? How is it possible that 85% of the people I speak to are “good” at poker? Everyone claims to be good at poker. What is up with that?

In the real world, how often have you seen civilized, moderately intelligent people who barely know each other, yell at each other and call each other stupid for no reason? Not too often I would suspect. It happens on the poker table all the time. The game may be for money, but it is a game and people have a right to play it any way they want, as long as they play by the rules. You always get those belligerent know-it-alls who start berating the fish (unskilled player) for making a dumb move. Sure, you just lost some money but get a grip and show some manners — we should just be adults!

For such a beautiful game, poker does attract its fair share of ugly people and degenerates. What a shame.

Appreciation of Weekends

It seems that I have a newfound appreciation for weekends now that I am out of college and out in the real world.

An Experiment in Murphy’s Law and Probability

I think I am unlucky. Not really, because I don’t believe in luck, but I figured I would try this experiment for amusement purposes. I have a little pouch with my 2 keys in it. The two keys are indistinguishable from each other at first glance, but only one of them opens the lock on my door. Every evening after work, I pick a key from the pouch at random and see if it opens the door. After 18 tries, one would expect around 9 first attempts to have been successful. But, naturally Murphy’s law prevailed, and that was not the case.

Of the 18 attempts, ONLY ONE succeeded on the first try. WHAT?

The Beginning, Again

This is approximately the 3439084th (or 5th) time that I have attempted to start a blog and 3439083rd (or 4th) time I have said “I’ll actually keep posting this time.” There have been a slew of reasons why I put up, took down, put up, and took down my blogs over and over.

But alas, I think this one is here to stay. Besides the obvious privacy implications, I see no compelling reason not to keep one. Nor do I see a real compelling reason *to* keep one. Nevertheless, on a whim I decided to create this site, and at least for now, I’ll keep it.

Scroll to Top